nuclear power for Africa
https://issues.org/why-the-united-states-should-partner-with-africa-to-deploy-advanced-reactors/?utm_
Issues in Science and Technology
Vol. XXXV, No. 2, Winter 2019
Why the United States Should Partner With Africa to Deploy Advanced Reactors
By Jessica Lovering, Kenton De Kirby
Jessica Lovering is the director of the energy program at the Breakthrough Institute and a doctoral student at Carnegie Mellon University. Kenton de Kirby is the content director at the Breakthrough Institute.
US regulators and companies have yet to make the most of rich
opportunities for nuclear innovation and deployment across the African
continent.
Africa has nuclear power in its future. Interest in nuclear energy
technologies among African nations is considerable and growing. Of the 30
countries identified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as
interested in nuclear power programs, one-third are in Africa. Although
the first commercial nuclear plant in these countries may be decades
away, now is the time for potential international partners to start
taking Africa's nuclear power ambitions seriously.
But why nuclear for Africa's energy development? The energy density of
nuclear fuel is certainly among its primary selling points. Nuclear fuel
is so dense that quantities sufficient to power 2 million people for a
year can be delivered in a few shipping containers-by truck, rail, or
barge. However, nuclear power's most prized attribute for rapidly
industrializing countries is its reliability. Once built, nuclear plants
provide cheap, reliable electricity for 40 to 60 years. Lack of a
reliable energy supply has taken a toll in Africa, compromising economic
prospects and environmental quality. A recent paper in Nature
Sustainability found that the frequent power outages across sub-Saharan
Africa increased reliance on backup diesel generators, exacerbating
pollution and raising costs for consumers.
Although nuclear power is often opposed, especially by renewable energy
advocates, for its costs, technological complexity, and possible risks,
no scale-up pathway for energy at the level needed in Africa is without
its potential shortcomings. Some observers have argued, for example, that
the infrastructure and logistics required for natural gas pipelines and
coal delivery by rail can make fossil fuels unreliable in developing
countries. And whereas renewables such as wind and solar are growing fast
in the developing world, their intermittency and high cost make them a
difficult energy source for powering an urbanizing and industrializing
Africa. Hydroelectric power has been a foundational and reliable energy
source in developed and developing countries alike, but its fuel source
depends on geography, and the long-term environmental consequences at
least in part offset short-term benefits.
All the same, if its advantages are to materialize in African countries,
nuclear's deployment will in all likelihood need to follow a different
path than it took in the developed world. The history of nuclear power in
the developed world is the story of large-scale light-water reactors
(LWRs), which are expensive to build, water-hungry, and require huge grid
capacity. The deployment of traditional LWRs in developing African
nations, therefore, will need to anticipate and address these challenges.
Fortunately, advanced nuclear reactor technology, such as small modular
reactors (SMRs), could dramatically reduce these countervailing
forces-provided there was an international export market that made them
available.
Here, we document the genuine interest in and progress toward commercial
nuclear power programs among several African countries. We identify the
largest barriers these countries must surmount to realize their nuclear
ambitions, and we discuss how new advanced nuclear designs under
development in the United States and abroad could lower these barriers to
deployment. We then offer recommendations tailored to the United States,
with particular attention to the regulatory conditions that make it
difficult for US nuclear companies to forge relationships with interested
African countries and thus prevent them from competing in the African
export market. Finally, we argue that in its engagement with emerging
economies, the United States must seek to make nuclear a socially
equitable and politically sustainable energy option.
Africa is interested, but faces challenges
Even though there is intense international interest in energy development
across the African continent, conventional wisdom holds-South Africa
notwithstanding-that nuclear energy makes no sense there. This view can
be challenged on a number of grounds. For one, several developing
countries in other parts of the world have successfully undertaken
nuclear power programs in the past to fuel their rapidly industrializing
economies, and there is no reason why African nations could not be
similarly successful. For another, a number of African countries have
already taken serious steps toward commercial deployment.
South Africa is the only country with an operating commercial nuclear
power plant on the African continent, but it's far from the only country
with an active nuclear science and technology sector. Nuclear research or
medical reactors are operating in Algeria, Egypt, Ghana, Morocco,
Nigeria, and South Africa. And many countries are starting to explore
international partnerships to import and build their first commercial
nuclear power plants. Many of these agreements will likely change, but we
recognize at least 11 African nations whose nuclear energy ambitions
deserve ongoing attention (see text box).
Nuclear Aspirations in Africa
Algeria has two research reactors, one supplied by China, the other by
Argentina. The government had a goal to have its first nuclear power
plant operating by 2029. It signed nuclear cooperation agreements with
Russia and the United States in 2007 and with China in 2008. In 2014 it
signed another agreement with the Russian state energy corporation
Rosatom to build its first nuclear power plant by 2025, four years
earlier than its previous goal.
Egypt's early nuclear power ambitions were supported by the Soviet Union,
but later commercial efforts were interrupted by conflict with Israel in
the 1960s and political unrest in the 2010s. In 2017, Egypt signed a new
agreement with Russia to build up to four 1.2 gigawatt (GW) reactors to
start operation in 2026.
Ghana has been interested in nuclear since the 1980s. Currently, the
Ghanaian government's road map for nuclear power set a target of 700
megawatts (MW) of capacity ready for commissioning by 2025 and later
expand to 1GW. A joint study by the International Atomic Energy Agency
and UN Energy conducted in 2006 found that Ghana could realistically have
a 300MW reactor generating electricity by 2025. Ghana signed a nuclear
cooperation agreement with Rosatom in 2015 to allow Ghana and Russia to
partner on nuclear projects.
Kenya is looking at coastal and river sites to meet its goal of
developing 1GW of nuclear power capacity by 2027 and expanding to 4GW by
2030. The Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board signed an agreement with China
General Nuclear Power in 2015 and two more with Rosatom and the Korea
Electric Power Corporation in 2016.
Namibia would like to leverage its large uranium deposits, which
constitute about 7% of global reserves, to produce electricity from
nuclear power. Namibia has received a proposal from China General Nuclear
Power to build its first nuclear power plant.
Nigeria's Atomic Energy Commission in 2010 selected four potential
nuclear power sites to install 4GW of nuclear capacity by 2025. The
commission and Rosatom have signed an agreement to develop a plan for
building two reactors at two different sites. Additionally, Nigeria has
signed a Memorandum of Understanding with a US company to develop small
modular reactors.
South Africa is the only African country with an operating nuclear power
plant, which has been producing 5% of the country's electricity since
1984. South Africa still has plans to expand its nuclear power capacity
to 9.6GW, but has faced heavy financial and political constraints.
Tanzania has issued a permit to mine uranium to a subsidiary of Rosatom
called Uranium One, and the country also has an agreement with Rosatom to
help it develop nuclear power by 2025.
Tunisia signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with France in 2007 and
Russia in 2015, but concrete plans have not been released.
Uganda has signed several international agreements with the goal of
developing two 1GW reactor units by 2031. These agreements are with China
Central Plains Foreign Engineering Company and the China Nuclear
Manufacturing Group in 2017 and then another with Rosatom in 2016.
Zambia signed an agreement with Rosatom in 2016 with a target of building
about 2GW of nuclear power capacity in the country within 10 to 15 years.
The agreement also includes local worker training and educational
programs for the public.
A number of African nations have also made notable regulatory progress,
advancing along the three phases laid out in the IAEA framework
Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear
Power. South Africa has of course completed all three development phases.
But Ghana has also hit all the 19 infrastructural milestones set out in
the framework's Phase 1 and has established the requisite legislative and
institutional structures for procuring a reactor. Nigeria has already
drafted a law to establish its national regulator, and in 2015, the IAEA
conducted two missions to Nigeria in support of its nuclear program, the
results of which showed that the country had adequate emergency
preparedness and response framework in alignment with the IAEA's safety
standards (although IAEA also concluded that Nigeria needed to improve
its policies on spent fuel and radioactive waste management).
Although there is understandable concern about weapons proliferation and
the security of nuclear facilities in developing countries, African
nations have made laudable progress on non-proliferation, with all but
two countries (South Sudan and Western Sahara) ratifying or acceding to
the international Non-Proliferation Treaty. Over half of the countries
have ratified the Additional Protocols to the treaty, which allow the
IAEA to verify that states are complying with their comprehensive
safeguards agreements (including all the countries pursuing nuclear
power, except Tanzania). Almost all countries have signed the African
Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty (also known as the Pelindaba
Treaty)-prohibiting all activities related to nuclear weapons
development, transport, and use-and a majority have ratified it.
A security nonprofit group in the United States, called the Nuclear
Threat Initiative (NTI), publishes a security risk index for developing
countries, based on the threat of theft of nuclear materials. Ghana is in
the group's lowest risk group, and several of the other prominent nuclear
power aspirants on the continent-Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda-have rankings in
the middle. Only Egypt was placed in the highest risk group. While the
NTI's evaluation suggests room for improvement, it places several African
nations at a level comparable to countries already constructing their
first nuclear power plants in other parts of the world, such as
Bangladesh and Turkey (both of which are having Rosatom, the Russian
state energy corporation, build their first plants). That may be still be
concerning, but it suggests that some African countries could be close to
first deployment if they received assistance from a nuclear vendor such
as Rosatom. The United States should engage early to help these countries
improve their nuclear security infrastructure, rather than dismiss them
as not ready for commercial nuclear.
But the ambitions and preparations of African nations for nuclear power
are matched by serious obstacles. The challenges of starting a commercial
nuclear program-controlling costs, building the necessary infrastructure,
resolving water scarcity, and ensuring sufficient highly skilled human
resources-can be daunting for any country, much less a developing one.
Grid capacity is among the greatest barriers that African countries face.
The typical nuclear reactor under construction around the world today has
a generating capacity of well over 1 gigawatt (GW). A rule of thumb for
power grids is that a single power plant should not make up more than
10% of their total grid capacity, so as not to disrupt the system if the
plant is offline. This consideration alone would rule out many African
countries that are looking toward a nuclear future, including Kenya (with
a 1.5GW grid capacity), Ghana (3GW), and even Nigeria (6.5GW).
Financing nuclear plants presents another intimidating hurdle. A 1GW
power plant could cost upward of $3 billion (in US currency), which would
be a tough sell to the government of Ghana with a 2016 gross domestic
product of $43 billion or Kenya with $71 billion.
Because thermal power plants withdraw significant quantities of water,
worsening water scarcity could also be a limiting factor for South
Africa, Namibia, Algeria, and Tunisia, each of which are projected by the
World Resources Institute as facing severe water stress by mid-century.
Playing nuclear leapfrog
Such obstacles suggest that African nations are unlikely to achieve their
nuclear ambitions by adopting expensive, high-capacity LWRs. Instead,
they will need to pursue advanced nuclear technologies that can
dramatically lower the barriers to deployment and allow them to leapfrog
today's dominant reactor designs. One of the most mature advanced reactor
technologies is small modular reactors, which are similar to the reactors
that have been deployed on naval vessels since the 1950s. Several US
companies are pursuing SMRs with capacities up to 300 megawatts (MW) that
can be manufactured in a factory and transported to the power plant site
for deployment by ship, train, or truck. Because of their much smaller
size and factory fabrication, they are projected to have lower capital
costs and shorter construction times than LWRs. And due to their
modularity, additional units can be added to meet growing demand and as
grid capacity permits.
The most mature SMR design in the United States comes from the company
NuScale Power, which has submitted its design for licensing and is
looking to start construction in the early 2020s for its first commercial
customer, the Utah Associated Municipal Power System. Of particular
promise in the African context are new SMR designs with integrated
desalination facilities to provide clean water for drinking or
agriculture. In South Korea, the SMART Power Company is marketing a 100MW
SMR that can also produce some 10 million gallons of potable water every
day. Jordan and Saudi Arabia have both shown interest in deploying this
technology.
A small number of US and European companies are also working on extremely
small modular reactors, or microreactors, which have capacities of 20MW
or less and can operate for up to 10 years without refueling. The owners
and operators of these reactors, sometimes dubbed "nuclear batteries," do
not have to handle fueling or maintenance, thus making them suitable for
African countries that lack a technical workforce with training in
nuclear technology. Microreactors could also be a good option for
off-grid industrial and mining operations, which are often the largest
energy consumers in developing countries.
Using already proven reactor technology, several companies are developing
floating and stationary offshore nuclear plant designs, using either SMRs
or traditional large LWRs mounted on vessels or offshore platforms. These
nuclear plants have easier access to cooling water, and their location
away from land makes them not subject to damage from hazards such as
tsunamis and earthquakes, which could make them easier to license from a
safety perspective. Rosatom in Russia and two companies in China are
developing small-scale floating plants, less than 200MW. In the United
States and South Korea, groups of engineers at universities have put
forward conceptual designs to deploy existing large-scale commercial
designs on offshore platforms, such as Westinghouse's AP1000 reactor.
Although the larger designs may not be appropriate for countries with
smaller grids and budgets, for smaller floating plants, siting and
construction challenges could be greatly eased. Plants could be
manufactured elsewhere and shipped to the host country, ready to plug
into the grid. Sudan has expressed interest in being the first foreign
customer for Rosatom's floating design.
Yet another advanced design under development is the high-temperature gas
reactor (HTGR). Because these reactors use gas rather than water as their
primary coolant, they operate at much higher temperatures and thus much
higher efficiencies, making them smaller and vastly reducing water
demand. They also use a ceramic fuel that can withstand significantly
higher temperatures, making a meltdown extremely unlikely. China's State
Nuclear Power Technology Corporation has completed construction of its
first modular HTGR, which was slated to start producing electricity for
the grid in 2018. There are also several US companies developing HTGRs,
some of which expect to start the licensing process within the next five
years.
African countries have expressed great interest in the potential use of
such advanced reactor designs, but in interviews with representatives
from state utilities and atomic energy agencies, they insist that they
need proven technology. With no desire to be the world's guinea pig for
untested nuclear technologies, these countries want the new reactors to
be first built and operated successfully in their country of origin. And
indeed, even though most advanced reactor designs being developed are
likely at least a decade or more away from deployment, this time frame
matches well with the development planning schedules for the most mature
programs in Africa. Countries such as Nigeria and Ghana, which are
furthest along, most likely will need at least a decade to build out
their regulatory structure and human capital to be ready to operate their
first nuclear power plant.
Mutually beneficial partnerships
Although advanced reactors hold great promise, the countries that
dominate the African nuclear export market-overwhelmingly Russia and
China-are offering only traditional LWRs.
Rosatom, which manages Russia's nuclear assets globally and offers
high-capacity LWRs, is the world's largest exporter of nuclear technology
to developing countries, thanks to its generous financing and worker
training. Rosatom has signed nuclear power agreements with Ghana, Kenya,
Nigeria, and Uganda, some of which include concrete plans to build power
plants. But there is hesitation to build a power plant that may
constitute over 50% of their electrical generation, especially if it was
built and operated by a foreign firm. Even in Tanzania, there are reports
that Rosatom has its subsidiary proposing the country's first nuclear
research reactor. Russia was also asked to bid on the construction of
9.6GW of new nuclear power in South Africa.
China, which is currently building more LWRs domestically than any other
country, is also highly engaged in developing the African market. China
completed its first nuclear export project in Pakistan in 2000 and is
looking to gain a larger share of the nuclear export market, particularly
in developing economies. China has recently signed nuclear agreements
with Kenya, Sudan, and Uganda to share information and train personnel on
its domestic Hualong reactor, and its leaders appear keen on increasing
the country's scope of nuclear influence on the African continent. In
2014, two Chinese companies, the China Nuclear Engineering Group
Corporation and the State Nuclear Power Technology Corporation, signed
agreements with the Nuclear Energy Corporation of South Africa, with both
agreements focused on training for nuclear power plant construction and
project management. China General Nuclear owns and operates the world's
second-largest uranium mine, in Namibia, and its subsidiary Swakop has
submitted a proposal to build a small LWR power plant there. China has
also built research reactors in Algeria, Ghana, and Nigeria.
The world's other nuclear exporters-including the United States, Canada,
and France, which dominated global exports historically-have minimal
roles in Africa, if any. The United States' retreat from fostering
nuclear power in Africa, or anywhere really, has been magnified of late
with the bankruptcy of Westinghouse, which was the main US nuclear vendor
bidding for projects abroad.
Kenya for now remains the only African country to sign a major nuclear
agreement with a South Korean nuclear developer, the Korean Electric
Power Corporation. The deal, signed in 2016, has both countries agreeing
to share nuclear expertise and collaborate on the construction of nuclear
power technology.
Argentina has built research reactors in both Algeria and Egypt, but may
lack the diplomatic clout to carry out a large-scale commercial power
project. Argentina's national atomic energy commission is developing a
domestic 100MW SMR, but African countries may be unwilling to sign an
agreement with Argentina without the financial, regulatory, and
infrastructural support of a country with an established track record in
nuclear construction.
Yet the United States still has an opportunity to help interested African
nations overcome the obstacles to realizing their energy ambitions.
Whereas Russia and China have large government investments in a few
advanced nuclear technologies, the United States has a robust and
thriving private sector for advanced nuclear development, drawing on both
decades of public research and development and a high-tech investment
ecosystem. From large national laboratories to small venture-backed
start-ups, the United States has over 50 firms working on a diverse
portfolio of advanced nuclear designs, many targeting smaller or niche
markets.
The US government should pave the way for advanced nuclear companies to
market their products in Africa. This means signing bilateral agreements
much earlier with African nations sincerely interested in nuclear power,
without which US nuclear companies will have trouble getting approval to
collaborate, share information, or export nuclear technology with these
nations. Unfortunately, the United States has tended to wait until a
country wants to import a particular nuclear technology to sign bilateral
agreements.
Finally, the government should tackle one of the largest barriers to the
development of nuclear power in newcomer countries: opposition from
international financing institutions, including the World Bank, which
have long-standing, explicit policies against funding nuclear power
projects. The US government should lobby these institutions to change
such policies in light of new technologies and business models. Small and
advanced nuclear designs could actually be a better fit for sustainable
development than many projects that the institutions fund today. The
United States has significant power in these organizations and should use
it to effect change.
There is a future in which innovative US nuclear companies develop
mutually beneficial partnerships with African nations, deploying advanced
nuclear technology that better matches their needs-simultaneously helping
US companies make their technologies cheaper and fueling Africa's
economic development without contributing to climate change. Realizing
this synergy, however, will take work, but the potential payoff for all
parties would be well worth it.
If the United States is to become more involved in the emerging nuclear
market in Africa, however, it must not repeat the mistakes of the past.
From French atomic weapons testing in Algeria to the extensive US mining
of uranium in the Congo and cooperation with the white minority
government in South Africa, the history of nuclear technology in Africa
is rife with exploitation. Today, there are similar concerns of
exploitation through China's investment policies and Russia's
all-inclusive power projects. The United States should chart a new
course, with the intention of creating equitable partnerships-supporting
strong democratic institutions, promoting good governance over nuclear
projects, and helping African governments meet their own economic and
energy goals.